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Fed Survey Finds Signs of a Slowdown in Some Areas

  • 03-08-2007
In Hawaii, hotel bookings are down slightly. In Texas, the frenzied pace of expansion in the energy industry has slowed. In New York, demand for all types of loans is off. þþWhile a “modest expansion” continued in most regions of the country from early January to late February, the Federal Reserve said yesterday that several areas have noticed a slowdown in growth. þþThe findings, contained in the Fed’s beige book report on regional economic activity, were consistent with other recent reports that have detected a downshift in the economy. The beige book — called that because of the color of its jacket — described the pace of expansion in a tone noticeably less upbeat than in previous reports. þþBut analysts said the report was not likely to cause any shift in tone from Fed members, who have recently described the state of the economy as slowing but steady. þþIndeed, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Michael H. Moskow, speaking yesterday in Chicago, said that the economy was “quite strong,” and that it was “much too early to say inflation is no longer a concern.”þþEconomists from Goldman Sachs said in a research note that the beige book “presents a slight downgrade of the economic outlook from the January version, though the overall change in position is not large.” þþThe beige book described a housing industry with two very different halves. Real estate and construction were generally poor for residential agents and developers, but generally solid for those selling commercial properties. þþThe report noted that “housing markets remained weak in almost all districts,” but that the slide was starting to level off somewhat. In Washington, where the overbuilt condominium market has been in decline, condo sales and listings rose. House prices also held steady for the most part there, the report said. In New Jersey, home builders said that the market for new homes had stabilized. þþIn Manhattan, the rental market tightened. One large real estate firm said that rents had eclipsed the highs set in 1999 and 2000.þþStill, the overall picture of the housing market was one of unabated decline. Home prices were “generally flat or declining,” the report said. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, investors were pulling out and inventories of unsold new homes were rising. þþIn the Chicago district, homeowners were taking their homes off the market to wait for a better time to sell, and condo developers were waiting to start projects until they had sold enough units. þþManufacturing was another sector of the economy that has had two faces recently. The report described residential construction and auto production as generally weak, while other industries — steel and aircraft, for example — were strong in some areas.þþThe report noted, for example, Nissan’s plans to reduce jobs at two plants in Tennessee, and “significant layoffs” in the St. Louis district at plants that produce automobiles, plastics and household appliances. þþAt the same time, factories in the Kansas City district that produce machinery and high-tech equipment reported “robust activity.” Food producers in the Dallas district reported stronger than expected demand.þþThe labor market remained generally strong, the report said, with pay rising and particularly high demand for skilled and professional workers. In the Philadelphia district, employers in a number of industries said they had to offer bigger raises than last year to hire and retain workers. þþIn North Dakota, a food processor reported having to recruit workers from out of state. And in Montana, which is experiencing a boom in its energy industry and an influx of retirees, a construction contractor described the labor market there as the tightest in three decades. þþ

Source: NY Times