For months, the nation's businesses have worried about a labor dispute that threatens to shut down 29 West Coast ports that handle $300 billion in cargo a year. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union has warned that 10,500 dockworkers might strike or engage in a work slowdown at ports from Seattle to San Diego, while the employers' group, the Pacific Maritime Association, has threatened to lock out the workers, a move that would shut down the ports.þþThe longshoremen's contract expired on July 1, and the two sides have bargained on and off since then, with the threat of a stoppage hanging over the talks.þþDavid J. Olson, a professor of political science at the University of Washington, is an expert on ports and the longshoremen's union. He has served as a consultant to many ports and port associations and was founding director of the Harry Bridges Center for Labor Studies at the university. He spoke on Thursday about the dispute and its implications. þþQ. Some economists have warned that even a short work stoppage would disrupt the economy. What would be the impact of a short or a long stoppage?þþA. A short stoppage would directly and immediately affect the three port centers of the West Coast — the Puget Sound, San Francisco Bay and San Pedro Bay near Los Angeles. It would severely affect those companies that depend on just-in-time inventory.þþIf a stoppage lasted a month or two, the impact would be very significant. It would affect shippers across the country, and given that we're in the pre-Christmas shipping season right now, the nation's retailers would be importantly affected.þþQ. Which industries or businesses in the United States would be hurt the most by a shutdown of the ports, and what effects would such a shutdown have overseas?þþA. A stoppage would affect the whole gamut of merchandisers, from Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot to Sears and Circuit City.þþManufacturers would also be affected. The container box is the warehouse for modern-day business. The ports handle millions of parts needed for assembly or manufacture. Auto dealers would also be affected. They'd definitely feel it if a stoppage went on for two weeks.þþThe nation's manufacturing export sector would also be affected. We're not talking only about goods flowing into the country, but also goods flowing out of the country. þþAs for the effects overseas, the whole international financial community would be disrupted because many banks do trade lending. They monitor worldwide cargo flows like a hawk.þþSecondly, most members of the Pacific Maritime Association and most of the steamship lines are foreign-owned, and they would be affected significantly. The Asian economies could also be dramatically affected, from South Korea to Singapore.þþþQ. Increased use of technology seems to be a sticking point in the negotiations. Why, given that the employers have guaranteed that no longshoremen would be laid off?þþA. The technology being considered is complex. It requires deliberation, discussion. I don't think the union is resisting new technologies. They want to discuss them to make sure the jobs created by the newly implemented technologies fall within union jurisdiction. They don't want those jobs to be nonunion.þþIn the past, the West Coast ports have been innovative and adaptive regarding new technology. Both sides have benefited remarkably. The shipping companies have profited handsomely, productivity has increased dramatically and union members have been well compensated.þþQ. Businesses that rely on West Coast seaports have had a few months to prepare for a stoppage. Have businesses been stocking up, or have they made alternative plans to import through Mexico, Canada or the East Coast?þþA. The shipping community considered alternative routes. Canada won't work because the dockworkers there are affiliated with the I.L.W.U. Mexico won't work because it doesn't have the port, rail or road infrastructure. The Panama Canal was considered and rejected because many of today's cargo ships are larger than that canal can handle. The stockpiling of inventory was considered, but not really followed, because of the just-in-time nature of modern-day business.þþQ. Longshoremen don't earn as much as baseball players, but with an average wage of $80,000, according to the union, they are still paid extraordinarily well compared with other blue-collar workers. For that reason, wouldn't a slowdown or strike be a public relations mistake?þþA. I think lesser-paid workers admire the longshoremen. They view the longshoremen as having earned this compensation level. Being a longshoreman is a very dangerous job. Injuries and fatalities rank it just behind mining. Additionally, this is a highly skilled and trained work force. I don't see envy out there. þþIf a work stoppage hurts the economy or Wall Street, I'm sure we will hear complaints from the business community and President Bush about these well-paid longshoremen. But we won't hear that from other workers. þþþþ
Source: NY Times
