As the Obama administration begins talking to Congress about a new jobs bill, it is still having trouble saying with precision how many jobs have been spurred so far by last year’s effort, the $787 billion stimulus package that was designed to create or save 3.5 million jobs over two years.þþOver the weekend, in fact, the administration released the latest figures showing the impact of the stimulus package on jobs, announcing that nearly 600,000 jobs had been financed directly in the fourth quarter of 2009. But it changed the definition of those jobs, making it hard for Congress or the public to keep score and learn how the stimulus is doing. þþFrom February to September, the administration had said, more than 640,000 jobs were saved or created. But in the final quarter of 2009, the administration no longer asked recipients whether all of those jobs were actually created or saved by the stimulus money or whether some of those jobs might have existed without the stimulus money.þþInstead, it now simply counts all existing jobs paid for with stimulus money as saved jobs, whether or not they would have been lost without the money.þþThe new, more expansive definition will make it more difficult to isolate the effects of the stimulus law, which is officially called the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, but should make it easier for states and employers to calculate jobs. But the new definition also means that the new tally of 599,108 jobs reported in the fourth quarter cannot be compared with the earlier figures from 2009.þþFiguring out whether jobs were actually created or saved by the stimulus ultimately proved too subjective, officials said. The Obama administration originally asked states and employers receiving stimulus money to file reports detailing how many jobs they had created, and how many jobs they had been able to retain “that would not have continued to be filled” without the stimulus money. þþBut when the recipients filed their first reports last fall, some decided to count nearly every job that was paid for with stimulus money as a “saved” job, while others only counted the jobs that would have actually been lost without the money. Their job tallies varied wildly, even for similar work paid for with similar amounts of money.þþEven with the new, simplified definition, there was some confusion.þþCalifornia, for example, reported financing 71,015 jobs with stimulus money in the fourth quarter, but its Department of Education, which is claiming nearly half of those jobs, used the old jobs formula. There was even some confusion about how much money the state had actually received: while the state originally reported receiving nearly $8.2 billion through the end of September, it reported that through the end of the year it had received only $7.8 billion; a state official cited changing definitions of what it meant to actually “receive” money.þþEconomists generally agree that the stimulus has increased the nation’s economic output. The jobs counted by recipients do not include jobs spurred indirectly by tax cuts or other aid; the White House estimated last month that between 1.5 million and 2 million jobs could be attributed to the stimulus package. But with the unemployment rate at 10 percent by the end of the year, higher than the worst-case scenario the White House forecast when it proposed the stimulus, skepticism about the stimulus’s effectiveness has remained high.þþStung by a storm of criticism this fall after numerous errors in the jobs reports were publicized, the White House released the latest figures quietly. This time there was no news conference, as there was last time, but rather a statement late Saturday night from Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. stating that the stimulus was on track. þ
Source: NY Times
