The United States economy added 216,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, adding to hopes that hiring was finally on a steadier track despite concerns about overseas turmoil. þþThe gain in jobs slightly exceeded economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate continued to decline, to 8.8 percent, from 8.9 percent the previous month. þþQuite a few signs have pointed to this economic recovery finally gaining some momentum. The weekly unemployment claims have declined steadily, from the mid-400,000s to the neighborhood of 385,000. In most contexts, the latter would be a grim number. But in this slowest and most sluggish of recoveries, it points to fewer layoffs, and presumably to more hiring. þþ Still, threats to a more robust recovery remain, of course, including a surge in energy and food prices, with the possibility of disruptions in oil production in the Middle East continuing to weigh on the financial markets. State and local governments have also been shedding jobs as they grapple with budget woes. þþBut economists are looking for more Americans, like those who have given up looking or who have taken part jobs because they cannot find full time, to find signs of hope. þþ“I suspect that the workers on the sideline will start coming back in,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institute. þþJust 64.2 percent of adults are either in the work force, or looking for a job; that’s the lowest labor participation rate in a quarter century. þþMany Americans had given up on finding work in this most terrible of economies, and survive on a spouse’s salary or savings. And they wait and hope for an upturn. “The unemployment rate may go up, but the bad news will be the good news,” Ms. Shierholz said. “It will mean people feel better about getting back into the economy.” þþThe larger question is what the medium-term future augurs. Will the job force continue to expand through the spring, and perhaps start to add jobs with enough vigor — 300,000 a month, say — to substantially reduce the unemployment rate? As Ms. Shierholz notes, if the economy adds 200,000 jobs a month, it will be 2019 before it reaches the same employment rate as before the Great Recession started. (Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has shed more than seven million jobs). þþFor President Obama, any uptick in employment numbers will offer a welcome ray of sunshine. The Democrats took big losses in last November’s election, in large part because of the weak economy, and as eyes now turn to 2012, the economy again figures to sit at center stage. þþ þþMany economists speak optimistically of the spring, but the outlook grows uncertain after that. The international storm clouds are many, from spectacular debt problems in Europe to revolution sweeping the oil-rich Middle East to Japan and its many maladies. And then there is the possibility of a government shutdown in Washington, as the Republican-controlled House challenges the White House. þþSome of the problems arising from these storms, such as higher oil prices, could take a while to work through the economy and, possibly to erode consumer confidence. þþ“The first half of this year will be the best job market that we’ll see in this whole expansion,” said David Levy of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. “We’re riding the crest of earnings. But after that, and looking toward 2012, the situation is very questionable.” þþ þþ
Source: NY Times
