The American economy grew at a rate of slightly more than 2 percent as 2014 drew to a close, but economists fear some of that momentum likely petered out in the first quarter of this year.þþThe economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, the Commerce Department said Friday. The figure was unchanged from an earlier estimate of growth released in late February.þþThis was the final revision by government statisticians who track the economy’s performance at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Before the report, economists on Wall Street had expected the growth rate to be revised upward to 2.4 percent.þþWhile decent, the economy’s performance in October, November and December of 2014 was well below the 5 percent pace of growth in the third quarter and the 4.6 percent rate in the second quarter.þþEven so, 2.2 percent, the pace of economic expansion late last year represents healthier growth than is likely to be seen in the current quarter, which ends Tuesday.þþAlthough the job market has been showing real signs of life, with the unemployment rate’s falling to 5.5 percent in February as employers hired 295,000 new workers, other yardsticks have been decidedly anemic.þþThis week, the government reported that durable goods orders fell last month, and retail sales have also been weak, despite consumers’ having more cash in their pockets thanks to lower energy prices.þþOne tailwind last year, rising exports, has faded recently, hurt by a strong dollar and weak conditions in key overseas markets like Europe and Brazil. In particular, the decline of the euro against the dollar has made American-made goods more expensive for European consumers.þþThe downshift in early 2015 has echoes of the economy’s performance in the first quarter of 2014, when very cold temperatures and snow were blamed for a 2.1 percent contraction in output.þþGrowth did pick up subsequently last year, but the on-again, off-again pattern of the recovery has frustrated experts and ordinary Americans alike, after years of predictions that sustained gains were finally at hand.þþOn Wednesday, after the durable goods figures were released, Barclays cut its tracking estimate of first-quarter growth to 1.2 percent, as did Macroeconomic Advisers, a widely followed forecasting firm. As recently as Feb. 10, Macroeconomic Advisers had been looking for growth of 2.4 percent in the first quarter.þþNext week, the economic picture will become a bit clearer, with data due April 3 on job creation and unemployment in March. Figures for the trade balance, home sales, personal consumption and construction in February are set to come out earlier in the week.þ
Source: NY Times
