NEW YORK (Reuters) - When Wall Street gets back to work this week after the Thanksgiving holiday, the focus will be on jobs and retail sales.þþThe November U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will be the main course on the week's menu of economic data. It will give the first look at the labor market after President Bush was elected to a second term on Nov. 2.þþ``The market will steer a neutral course until Friday,'' said David Buik, head of business strategy at spread-betting firm Cantor Index. ``If we get good jobs figures, I think we could see the market headed on a steady course through to Christmas.''þþMonthly retail sales figures on Thursday will offer early clues on whether ``Black Friday'' -- the annual ritual on the day after Thanksgiving when shoppers mob the malls and discount stores in search of holiday bargains -- was a success.þþThe National Retail Federation, the leading retail industry group, pegged Thanksgiving weekend spending at $22.8 billion. But retailers' hopes for the holiday season were restrained as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N) cut its November sales forecast.þþAuto makers issue monthly sales on Wednesday.þþOil prices remain in focus, after weighing heavily on the market ever since rising above $50 a barrel this fall.þþInvestors will also pay heed to the falling dollar, which has seized Wall Street's attention lately.þþ``As long as oil doesn't rise too high, and the dollar doesn't fall too low, I think we'll continue to see a pretty good market,'' said Edward Hemmelgarn, chief investment officer at Shaker Investments.þþOil prices climbed back toward $50 a barrel on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, on winter supply worries, after sliding below $48 a barrel earlier in the day. The New York Mercantile Exchange was closed on Friday for the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend.þþU.S. crude oil prices, which hit a record $55.67 a barrel in late October, have soared more than 50 percent this year and often held the stock market back. Investors worry that rising energy prices will sap corporate profits and curb spending by consumers who pay more for gasoline at the pump.þþOn Friday, the dollar recovered from a sharp drop that took it to new lows against the euro on reports China might be cutting back on its accumulation of dollar reserves. It was the fourth straight day the dollar hit new lows against the euro.þþA weaker dollar makes U.S. products cheaper overseas, which helps U.S. companies improve their offshore earnings from demand fueled by bargain-hunting shoppers.þþBut investors can be reluctant to buy U.S. assets if they expect the dollar to continue to weaken and reduce the value of those investments.þþ``Further declines in the U.S. dollar could really rattle the markets' cage,'' Buik said.þþFor the holiday-shortened week, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) gained 0.6 percent, while the broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) rose 1.05 percent and the tech-laced Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) climbed 1.51 percent. þþFULL PLATE OF ECONOMIC DATAþþThe week's first big serving of economic data arrives on Tuesday, with Chicago PMI and consumer confidence figures due. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of business activity in the U.S. Midwest, is expected to slip to 62.5 for the overall index reading in November from 68.5 in October.þþThe consumer confidence index for November, which will be released by The Conference Board, is forecast to rise to 96.5 from 92.8 last month, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. The Conference Board is a private research firm.þþOn Wednesday, personal income and consumption data arrive, along with the Institute for Supply Management index, which measures growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector.þþThe forecast calls for U.S. personal income to rise 0.5 percent from a gain of just 0.2 percent in the previous period, while personal consumption is expected to rise 0.4 percent, below the previous gain of 0.6 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists.þþEconomists expect the ISM index for November to rise to 57 from a reading of 56.8 in October.þþWal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, will get the Street's attention when it releases its November sales figures on Thursday. Over the weekend, Wal-Mart cut its forecast for November sales to a gain of just 0.7 percent for U.S. stores open at least one year -- down sharply from a forecast for a rise of 2 percent to 4 percent just a week ago.þþOther retailers, from department stores to discount chains, also will report November sales data on Thursday.þþThursday's round of economic data includes weekly jobless claims, factory orders, and durable goods orders.þþOf all the economic reports due this week, many consider Friday's November nonfarm payrolls data the most important, as it will offer broad clues about the health of the U.S. economy.þþEconomists polled by Reuters expect that non-farm payrolls added 180,000 jobs in November, after October's surprising gain of 337,000.þþIn the earnings arena, Pall Corp. (PLL.N), a maker of purification and filtration systems, grocery chain Albertsons Inc. (ABS.N) and Dollar General Corp. (DG.N), which operates a chain of deep-discount retail stores, are among the handful of companies due to release their quarterly results.þþ
Source: NY Times
